An article from TIME (magazine) explains how climate change is reshaping Americans’ expectations of a “white Christmas,” and why snowy holiday memories don’t always line up with reality. Long-term weather data and climate trends indicate that widespread snow on Christmas morning has historically been relatively rare across much of the United States—and is becoming even less likely as temperatures continue to warm.
The article notes that the National Weather Service only defines a white Christmas as having at least one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. Based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data from 2003 to 2024, only about 36% of the contiguous U.S. experienced that level of snow cover on average. Regions such as the Mountain West, northern New England, and parts of the Upper Midwest are the main areas where the odds exceed 50%, while many other regions rarely see December snow at all .
David Robinson, RCEI Affiliate, New Jersey State Climatologist and Rutgers University professor, performs key research on snow cover. Robinson explains why people often feel that white Christmases are disappearing even in places where they were never common to begin with. “People tend to remember that one snowy Christmas, and they forget that it was surrounded by five Christmases that weren’t,” he says. This quote is important because it highlights how memory and cultural imagery—reinforced by movies and music—can distort how people perceive long-term climate trends.
Robinson also connects changing perceptions to practical shifts in daily life. He notes that snow doesn’t linger the way it once did, partly because snow removal has become more efficient. “The science of snow removal has improved so people’s lives aren’t as disrupted by snow events today as they were 25–50 years ago,” he explains, adding that this can make it feel like there is less snow overall. This insight helps explain why people may interpret fewer inconveniences from snow as evidence of less winter weather, even when snowfall still occurs.
Beyond perception, the article makes clear that climate change is genuinely altering winter conditions. Robinson points out that December temperatures across the U.S. have warmed by three to five degrees over the past 75 years, a shift that can easily turn what would have been snow into rain. That warming trend lowers the overall odds of a white Christmas, especially in regions like the Northeast and Upper Midwest, even though intense snowstorms can still occur as warmer air holds more moisture.
Read the full article here.
